The Mayor of London appears to have tempered expectations that he will reach affordable housing targets set by the government.
Sir Sadiq Khan said he was “hopeful” that the goal of 17,800 starts by next month could be reached, but would not commit to doing so.
Earlier this month the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS) revealed that just 7,878 homes have been started up to December 2025 under the 2021-2026 Affordable Homes Programme (AHP).
Unless 9,922 additional starts are delivered between January and March, the Mayor will fall short of the target already reduced twice by ministers.
In early January, deputy mayor for housing Tom Copley told the Budget and Performance Committee that he “fully anticipates” that 18,400 home starts would be achieved under the current AHP.
A few months earlier, he told the housing committee that, “based on the information that is being provided to us by our delivery partners, we will be able to achieve the new target range that has been set out”.
However, Sir Sadiq was not as committal with his words during Mayor’s Question Time on Thursday (February 26).
“I’m hopeful and we’ll do whatever we can to reach the target”, he told assembly members.
“There are things inside our control, there are some things outside our control in terms of construction inflation, skill shortages, Building Safety Regulator (BSR) [delays], interest rates – so we’ll do whatever we can within our control. We obviously hope that the macro[economic] situation changes as well”.
Sir Sadiq and Mr Copley have previously spoken of a “hockey stick” effect – a sudden, sharp increase in housing starts towards the end of an AHP – due to a “very strong incentive for partners to meet the deadline in order to access funding”.
However, the Mayor of London today admitted that he once again needed to “smash some records” to reach the target.
“Like in previous years, we’ve been really nervous at this stage, but hopefully developers come through over the course of Q4”, he said. “We will have to break some records in Q4 for us to reach the target we’ve been set.
“The piece of good news is the government’s given additional flexibility in terms of grants and loans so we can unlock stalled housing.”
The mayor also said speeding up the BSR was a vital way in which housing starts could be more evenly spread over the course of the next AHP.
Reform UK assembly member Alex Wilson said: “Hopeful sounds like quite a bit of watering down from ‘we will be able to’. It’s probably less of a hockey stick and more of a ski jump. Londoners are paying the price for this Mayor’s failure on housing.”
Sir Sadiq refused to say what would happen if the AHP target was not reached, adding: “I’m not somebody who talks in hypotheticals, so let’s wait and see and cross that bridge when it comes to it.”
The target has already been reduced twice, from an initial 35,000 to a range between 23,900 to 27,100 and finally down to between 17,800 and 19,000.
Ministers have taken radical measures to try and boost housebuilding in London amid demands for 88,000 new homes in the capital every year. This includes striking a deal with City Hall to reduce affordability quotas for developers from 35 to 20 per cent for a limited time period.
A spokesman for the Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) told the LDRS: “All areas of the country, including London, must play their part as we build 1.5 million homes and restore the dream of homeownership.
“The Housing Secretary is working with the Mayor of London to significantly ramp up housebuilding in the capital – with a package of emergency measures announced in October to unlock stalled sites and ensure more affordable homes are being built”.
