Labour’s expected London losses in the local elections could make life much tougher for the Mayor of London, opposition parties have warned.
Recent surveys suggests both the Green party and Reform UK are set to make gains across the capital, while both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could cause Labour trouble in one or two boroughs.
Analysis from pollsters More in Common claimed the Greens are heavily favoured to win some inner London boroughs, such as Hackney and Lewisham, while Reform will leapfrog the Conservatives in outer London areas such as Bexley, Bromley and Havering.
This was backed up by this week’s MRP poll from YouGov, which suggested that Labour, which currently controls 21 of the capital’s 32 boroughs, will only have the largest vote share in 15 of them come May.
They predict the Greens will have the highest number in four boroughs, Reform UK in three, the Conservatives in five and the Liberal Democrats in four.
Where Labour is set to struggle
In a media briefing on Monday (20 April ), Luke Tryl of More in Common said: “The Greens will be going after inner London boroughs, the Tories will want to win back their flagship boroughs and we expect Reform to make their biggest gains in the south east of London.
“The Greens could do very well, taking advantage of the disaffected progressive vote. We expect to see significant change in Hackney, where Labour have dominated for a long period of time. We could see Labour reduced to single digits [on the council], while the Mayoral contest adds an extra layer of complexity.
“The capital isn’t one of Reform UK’s strongest areas, but they could cost the Conservatives in places like Bexley and Bromley, and do well in Havering, as well as in the Labour stronghold of Barking and Dagenham.
"For the Liberal Democrats, they dominate the ‘golden corner’ in the South West- their best prospects come from replicating their General Election success in places like Wimbledon and Merton.
“Traditionally, the Liberal Democrats have also done better in places like Southwark and Haringey; they won’t want to leave those parts to the Greens.
For the Conservatives, their hope might be on a difficult night, the narrative slightly changes if they are able to win places like Westminster and Wandsworth [that were lost in 2022]. Their best prospects also come in Barnet.”
How this affects Sir Sadiq and City Hall
While Londoners will have to wait until 2028 to vote for the next Mayor and members of the London Assembly, the results of the local elections in London could have a significant impact on Sir Sadiq Khan’s legacy.
While the Greater London Authority (GLA) dictates the regional strategy on major issues such as housing, transport, and policing, it is up to the boroughs to implement such policies.
The next two years, however, could see a political battle of attrition between City Hall and various London boroughs over contentious matters such as major developments and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTNs).
Bullish opposition parties have pledged to “hold the Mayor’s feet to the fire” after May 7 if London ends up a lighter shade of red.
Liberal Democrat London spokesperson, Luke Taylor MP, told the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS): “From the housing crisis and transport cuts, to the rise in neighbourhood crime, Londoners have been let down by Labour for far too long.
“We were promised that a Labour mayor and government working together would get a better deal for residents, instead we have seen broken promises and we are at risk of managed decline.
"Across the capital people want local champions who stand up for their communities and deliver on the issues that really matter, not just chat about culture war soundbites, which is why increasingly they’re turning to the Liberal Democrats.
“We will continue to hold the Mayor’s feet to the fire on the issues affecting Londoners, demanding more bobbies on the beat to keep our streets safe, fighting against the cuts to bus services and calling out their failure to fix our pothole riddled roads.
"Every vote for the Liberal Democrats in May’s elections here in London is a vote to hold Labour accountable and stand up against the divisive politics of Reform.”
A City Hall Conservatives spokesperson added: “Sadiq Khan continues to let down Londoners by neglecting the responsibilities of his job and refusing to take being Mayor of London seriously.
"At every level – from City Hall, to council chambers, ward by ward, the Conservatives in London will continue to hold his feet to the fire. Whether it is his plans to bulldoze our Green Belt or slashing police front counters, we will oppose plans that make London worse off.”
The elections will also have an impact on London Councils, a cross-party organisation that represents London’s 32 borough councils and the City of London.
City Hall and London Councils, which is both chaired and dominated by Labour officials, currently work closely on the implementation of housing, transport and environmental policies across the capital’s boroughs.
On June 16, however, a new Chair and Executive Committee will be elected “on a politically proportional basis”, meaning the Mayor of London could have to work with a very differently politically aligned organisation.
Sadiq Khan’s pledge
The Mayor has accepted that, whatever the outcome, he would work with the new batch of local leaders to continue to serve London.
“I’m there for all Londoners, which means representing all of London, whether you voted Labour, Conservative, Green, Lib Dem, Reform, or any party, big or small,” he told the LDRS last week.
“Similarly, I try to work with all council leaders, whether you’re a council leader who’s from my party, or Conservative, or Lib Dem. Or a Green, or a Reform, going forward after May 7.
Sadiq Khan is willing to work with Reform and Green councils after May elections.
“It’s really important we come together as Team London to work for the common good – and as long as I’m here, I’ll carry on working with politicians from all parties for the common good, which is our constituents.”
